Christmas is now about analysing Football

As well as Swansea in the premierleague, there are extra fixtures from another league to do, so working almost every day from Christmas to the end of first week in January. One of the lucky ones to get Boxing day and New Year's day off.

Swansea were unlucky to draw against QPR in my opinion; I mean how unlucky was Britton's header that set up the QPR goal, and also Graham should have had a penalty. I will give a more in depth analysis after the next two Swansea games against Tottenham and Aston Villa. With some analysis on things that could improve in January, in terms of transfers and hence tactics.

As for today, pulled off a sharp move to get onto the tube to make sure I got the early train back home. A short burst of speed to get my foot in the door of the tube, it opened up straight away, 'That was a cool move' was the appraisal from a few lads on the tube. It was more to do with how fast I ran to the door and slowed down instantly to stick my foot perfectly between the doors - Agility, Balance and Co-ordination (doesn't just have to be in a football session).

Swansea City Fc vs Newcastle and Everton (Away games)

Smart Swans

There have been many comparisons made this season between Swansea City this year and Blackpool FC last year. But one thing is for sure, Swansea know how to defend, and do a better job of it.

Newcastle Away

Newcastle United dominated the game on 17/12/2011, in the attacking sense having 22 shots compared to 3 for Swansea. But Brendan Rodgers went there with a game plan, and it worked. Newcastle are doing very well this year and to come away with a point was a good result. Swansea had 51% possession, showing they weren't scared to get on the ball and knock it about as they always do, but there was little intention from the central midfielders to break forward and join in with the attack.

Everton Away

Against Everton FC,  Swansea appeared to be a little more adventurous, opening up and trying to attack Everton when the time was right. However, the main focus was once again on defending well and making sure they kept yet another clean sheet. Once again Swansea had more of the ball, but total number of shots were 16 to 5 in Everton's favour (and only 1 of those shots hit the target for Swansea). Everton's Osman scored the only goal of the game with a header from a corner kick. After the game Rodgers claimed that Swansea should have had a goal kick instead of the corner being given to Everton.

For me it's smart tactics, Newcastle are flying and Everton are a solid mid table team, getting two points from those games would hit the expected target. Blackpool went all out and lost smart points, Rodgers looks like he's trying to pick up smart points, that's the difference.

A striker and a quick CAM would help a lot in January, at least one central attacking player is needed from what i can see.

Christmas Crackers

You look at the fixtures and think just about every game is tough. But Swansea control possession so well, it means they have a better chance of a result (see previous blog).

I do expect Swansea to have a go at QPR next time out at the Liberty Stadium; if they sit back, then I can understand fans questioning the strategy. The Tottenham Hotspur game on New Year's Eve is just one for everyone to enjoy. Fans will expect Swansea to lose, hope for a result, but they know they will get the best football of the weekend. I can't believe it's not on TV but I have the good fortune of analysing it live.

Don't Just Hoof It!

Is it better to keep possession, and play through the thirds, using the short passing game? The question has been asked many times, but have we found a simple enough answer to explain it to the masses?

If we look at Swansea in the English Premier League, they have come through the lower leagues playing out from the back with short passing and are now seen as a credit to the top tier of English football.

For the idealists, the 'purists' this would be the way every club plays; but maybe the different styles in football are what make it so enthralling.

Anyhow, take for example a fixture played between Blackburn Rovers and Swansea City on December 3, a fixture I analysed for Opta.

Launched

By the end of the first three or four minutes, Swansea had around 93% possession. Blackburn Rovers absolutely refused to play football, the first few free kicks they won in their own half were launched into the Swansea box, with Samba being sent forward (within the first fifteen minutes).

Over ninety minutes Swansea had 68.4% possession, even though they played with ten men for the last ten minutes.

Throughout the game Swansea played some beautiful football, but could not create enough opportunities with a proverbial bus parked in front of them. Blackburn had 15 shots with 5 on target compared to Swansea with 10 shots and 4 on target.

The long punts into dangerous areas paid dividends for Blackburn Rovers as they were 3-2 up before an 80th minute red was given to a frustrated young genius in Joe Allen. Who had been trying his best to find a solution to the problem he had been presented with; a psychological error in judgement influenced by Blackburn's style of play?

In any case, the brutal, 'distasteful' tactics ultimately brought about the desired result. How can you argue that Blackburn were wrong, since they won?

More importantly, how do we argue this with the coaches and parents who bring it up in youth football?

An article in 'The Guardian' newspaper (First link in this google search (doesn't work directly for some reason)) shows the importance of possession, and the statistics that support this notion, in the final section of the article.

It also beautifully sums up the Blackburn Rovers vs Swansea fixture with its final paragraph (what a group of players that is).

Maybe it needs someone to suggest a national game strategy of hoofing the ball from one end to another to cause uproar.

Well from that article we can see that in the 70's and 80's 'at the FA's Centre of Excellence at Lilleshall, direct football became the explicit tactical philosophy of the English game, and the emphasis came increasingly to focus on long diagonals and effort'.

Long ball strategy

For me it is frightening to think that, even now, rather than uproar, possibly an equal amount of people as those supporting the short passing and dribbling game, would back the long ball strategy. By this I mean constantly hoofing the ball up to strikers, without much thought. There are times when the long ball/direct football is the correct decision, but seeing kids with their heads down and just kicking it as far forward as possible is disappointing for me.

Without the proper education, or an easy to understand explanation, a lot of people will take things at face value, and in the aforementioned English Premier League game they would have seen Blackburn Rovers comprehensively beat Swansea City 4-2.

How do we tell the kids in mini soccer that Swansea City was the better football team? Is it purely aesthetic or do we have a rational, purposeful, simple explanation.

Specific examples aside (which is usually where the opposing rationale comes from in this situation); current research has shown the importance of possession in football.

Penas et al (2010) summed up previous research and produced their own statistics showing that the teams that retain possession for longer periods are more successful (http://www.jssm.org/vol9/n2/18/v9n2-18pdf.pdf).

First touch

We see the best team in the world at the moment, FC Barcelona, playing in this way. If you look at the weight of their first touch, and the pace they can play at, it is incredible; especially in the tight spaces in midfield and in and around the penalty box.

The weight of pass and touch is amazingly well controlled and allows them to pass through the thirds with confidence. 

As well as being very well organised as a team, individually they have great ball control and spatial awareness. The motor skills that aid this task are better developed at a young age, not when they become adults. 

I will allow people to draw their own conclusions from this post, but I can not see how launching the ball from back to front will help develop this range of motor skills and create better footballers. 

As for a simple answer ''complex problems do not have simple solutions''.